Three weeks in a row we have gone 2-3. I am convinced that will happen the rest of the season. Here are this weeks picks.
Georgia vs Auburn
Aaron Murray looks to beat his third top 10 team of the year on Saturday when the Bulldogs take on the Auburn Tigers. The Bulldogs are on a two game winning streak and will look to end Auburn's chance at an SEC Championship and National Championship. The Bulldogs will rely heavily on the arm of Aaron Murray who will look to make plays down field against a defense that has been vulnerable against the big play this year. Murray will have to spread the ball to multiple targets as he has lost multiple play makers to season ending injuries. The Bulldogs will also need RB Todd Gurley to run over the Tigers defense that has struggled to stop the run, allowing an average of 155 yards per game. Gurley has played well over the last two weeks after missing the previous three weeks with an ankle injury. If Georgia can run the ball with Gurley and protect Aaron Murray in the pocket, than the Bulldogs will have a shot at upsetting the Tigers.
The Auburn Tigers look to set up a Iron Bowl showdown next week with Alabama, but first need to get through the Georgia Bulldogs. The Tigers are coming off a 55-23 whooping of Tennessee in Knoxville and will look to keep their offensive surge going on Saturday. The Tigers have absolutely shredded opponents on the ground this year with their spread offense running attack. The Tigers are third in the country in rushing yards per game and the keys to this rushing efficiency are QB Nick Marshall and RB Tre Mason. Marshall is averaging over seven yards per carry while Mason has scored 16 touchdowns so far this season. Georgia should expect a heavy dose of both Marshall and Mason early and often throughout the game. While Marshall hasn't killed in through the air, the isn't asked to make many plays through the air. He is more of a game manager and has done a very good job of that so far this season. In fact, in the last three games, Marshall has only thrown 16 total passes. Auburn's average margin of victory in those three games was 28 points. Georgia has been tough against the run this year, so Marshall will have to throw some in this game, however, the Georgia secondary has been atrocious this year, which should help prevent Marshall from making mistakes.
Key Matchup: Todd Gurley vs the Tiger front seven. If Gurley can find some holes and move the chains, it will not only benefit the Georgia offense by keeping the chains moving, but it will also keep the explosive Auburn offense off the field. If Auburn can stop the Georgia running game, then it will be in good shape. If Auburn has trouble getting the Georgia offense off the field, then the Tigers might have to rely on Marshall's arm at the end of the game in order to get the win and that is something that they don't want to do.
Prediction: +Auburn Athletics 35 - +Georgia Bulldogs 24
Michigan St vs Nebraska
The Michigan St Spartans will look to effectively clinch the Legends division title with a win over Nebraska in Lincoln on Saturday. The Spartans are coming off a dominating win over Arch Rival Michigan and will look to win their sixth game in a row on Saturday. While it hasn't been pretty, the Spartans have found ways to win games this year even with their struggles on offense. The Spartan defense has been absolutely dominant this year. Michigan State ranks #1 in rushing yards allowed per game and #3 in passing yards allowed per game. Safe to say, the opposing offenses have gotten little going against the Spartans all year. The defense will look to continue their dominance against an the Cornhusker offense that will be without QB Taylor Martinez. The Cornhuskers will start a freshman at QB, which is great news for the Spartans. The Spartans offense has been better over the last two weeks and will look to support their defense against the Conrhuskers. QB Connor Cook has been a great game manager for the Spartans throwing for 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions this season. Cook has improved as the year has gone on including completing 93% of his passes against Illinois as well as beating Michigan at home. Cook will need to continue this ball security approach against the Cornhuskers on Saturday. Along with Cook's ball security, the Spartans will rely on RB Jeremy Langford to move the ball down the field and come away with touchdowns in the red zone. Langford has been outstanding lately, rushing for over 100 yards in four straight games and six touchdowns. If Langford can continue this type of production, and Cook can take care of the ball, the Spartans will be on their way to clinching the Legends division.
The Cornhuskers are also looking to get the inside track to winning the Legends division and securing a spot in the Big 10 Championship game. The Cornhuskers are coming off a win over Michigan and will need to play much better offensively against a tough Spartan defense. QB Tommy Armstrong will look to mirror the kind of performance he had against Michigan, in which he had no turnovers and had a QB rating of 139 rather than the performance he had against Northwestern where he threw three interceptions. If Armstrong can take care of the football in obvious passing down situations, the Cornhuskers can stay in the game and try and pound the ball with their running game. RB Ameer Abdullah will try and do what no other running back has been able to do so far this year against the Spartans and that is find room to run. Abdullah will need to move the pile and lead his team into the end zone as opposed to settling for field goals in the red zone, The Conrhuskers defense will also need to stack the box to stop the Spartan running attack. If the Red Shirts can slow Langord down a little bit and pressure Cook into making a mistake or two, than the game will be extremely close coming down the stretch and could come down to the final series.
Key Matchup: Tommy Armstrong vs the Spartan secondary. Armstrong will need to take what the defense gives him and not try and force the ball into tight spots. If Armstrong can move the chains and not turn the ball over, the Cornhuskers can play a field position type game and win. If Armstrong tries to make to many big plays when they are not there, this could be a long day for the freshman QB and Cornhusker offense against an elite defense.
Prediction: +Michigan State Athletics 21 - +Nebraska Cornhuskers 13
Oklahoma St vs Texas
The Big 12 Title will be decided over the next three weeks and the first game to decide it will be between the Cowboys and Longhorns. Oklahoma St comes in on a five game winning streak and will look to beat Texas in Austin for the third time in a row. The Cowboys up tempo offense has taken awhile to get on track this year but now seems to be headed in the right direction with Clint Chelf at the QB helm. Chelf has started the last four games, and has improved on each of his performances. In his last two games, Chelf has totaled seven touchdowns to just two turnovers and has had a QB rating over 110. Chelf will need to be at his best both through the air and on the ground against a much improved Longhorn defense. RB's Desmond Roland and Jeremy Smith will look to keep drives going with their legs as well as punch the ball into the end zone. The pair have combined for 19 touchdowns so far this season and if they can keep the Longhorns on their heels, than the Cowboys will have a great chance to win the game.
The Longhorns have done nothing but win since Case McCoy became the starting QB. The Longhorns have won five in a row with McCoy under the helm and will look to put themselves in great position for a Big 12 title with a win over Oklahoma St on Saturday. While his numbers haven't been great, McCoy knows how to put his teams in position to win and seems to come up with big plays when the Longhorns need it. They will need him to make plays and take care of the ball against the Cowboys on Saturday to prevent Oklahoma St from building up a big lead. McCoy will spread the ball across multiple receivers including possession receiver Jaxon Shipley and the deep threat Mike Davis. McCoy will also be helped out by a running game that has come on of late. RB Malcolm Brown will have to carry the load now after Johnathan Gray tore his Achilles last week against West Virginia. Brown has rushed for over 100 yards in two of the last four games and has scored seven times in those four games as well. RB Joe Bergeron will need to get critical short yardage plays and take care of the football if the Longhorns are to win on Saturday.
Key Matchup: The Texas running game against the Oklahoma St front seven. If Texas can run the ball the way it did against Oklahoma, than Texas will win the game. If the Longhorns struggle to run the ball the way they did against West Virginia, this game will get out of hand by the third quarter.
Prediction: +Oklahoma State Athletics 31 - +Texas Longhorns 21
Houston vs Louisville
The Houston Cougars will look to stay alive for the AAC conference championship when they take on the Louisville Cardinal. The Cougars are coming off a 19-14 loss to UCF last week in a game where their offense couldn't mount any momentum. The Cougars should have an easier time against the Louisville defense on Saturday. The Cougar offense starts and ends with QB John O'Korn. O'Korn has been magnificent as a freshman throwing for over 2300 yards, 23 touchdowns and only six interceptions. O'Korn struggled a bit against the strong UCF secondary last week and will look to get back on track against the Cardinals. O'Korn will almost certainly look to get Deontay Greenberry some more touches against the Cardinals. Greenberry has been the Cougars home run hitter on offense with nine touchdowns as well as their possession receiver as he has doubled the amount of catches as the next receiver. O'Korn will need to get the ball into the hands of Greenberry early and often if the Cougars expect to travel to Louisville and win. The Cougars will also need to get better production out of their running game to beat a team like Louisville. RB's Kenneth Farrow and Ryan Jackson will need to tally way more than 69 yards on the ground if the Cougars are to pull off the upset.
Louisville is also looking to stay in the AAC title chase and needs to beat Houston on Saturday for that to continue. QB Teddy Bridgewater will look to continue rolling against a Cougar defense that ranks 115th against the pass. Bridgewater has been extraordinary this year, throwing for over 2800 yards, 24 touchdowns and only three interceptions while completing 71% of his passes. Bridgewater will spread the ball around to multiple targets including Damian Copeland, the teams leading receiver, and DeVante Parker the touchdown machine. If Houston is playing against the deep ball, Bridgewater has no problem dinking and dunking the Cougar defense to death as long as it moves the chains and puts the Cardinals in position to win. Normally it would be a problem for a team to rely solely on their QB to win the game, but when your QB is a Heisman contender and the defense is absolutely awful against the pass, you can lean on him to make plays and win the game for you without a running game. The good news for Bridgewater is that he has a capable running game that can keep the defense off balance if and when he needs to use it.
Key Matchup: The Houston secondary vs Teddy Brigewater. If the Cougars play the way they have on defense all year against the pass, this game will be over by halftime. If the Cougars can put some pressure on Bridgewater, keep plays in front of them and tackle, then they will have a chance in the fourth quarter with their offense rolling the way it has this season.
Prediction: +Louisville Cardinals Athletics 42 - +University of Houston 28
Upset Special
Miami vs Duke
Miami looks to end a two game losing streak when they travel to Durham to take on the Duke Blue Devils. The Hurricanes haven't looked the same since star RB Duke Johnson was injured against Florida St two weeks ago. The Hurricanes have to rely more on QB Stephen Morris in order to win ball games, which has proven to be a troublesome combination in his time at Miami. Morris has talent as evidenced by his 2000 yards passing on the season and 14 touchdowns. The problem for Morris is his decision making and his accuracy. Morris has thrown 10 interceptions this year and is only completing 59% of his passes. If Miami expects to beat Duke, let alone make it to the ACC title game, Morris will have to make better decision and take care of the football. Morris will no doubt look to throw it to Allen Hurns as much as he can on Saturday. Hurns is averaging 20 yards per catch and is the leading receiver for the Hurricanes on the year. RB Dallas Crawford will look to help Morris out by running over a defense that ranks 67th in FBS in rushing yards allowed. If Miami expects to win, Morris will need to play turnover free football and Crawford will need to run a lot better than he did against Virginia Tech.
Who would of thought that after reaching six wins last year, the Duke Blue Devils would already have eclipsed last year's win total with three games left to play. Head Coach David Cutcliffe has done a masterful job building a program that was literally at rock bottom into a respectable foe. The Blue Devils have won five in a row and will look to beat Miami for the first time, since the Hurricanes joined the ACC. The Blue Devils will bring their balanced, everyone chips in kind of offensive approach into their game on Saturday. Duke has interchanged their QB's throughout the year and it will be interesting to see how that will play out against the Hurricane defense. Brandon Connette has been the better passer and runner throwing for 12 touchdowns and six interceptions while also rushing for eight touchdowns. Anthony Boone has also seen time at the QB position, but has struggled mightily through the air, especially the last two weeks throwing for zero touchdowns and seven interceptions. Like the QB position, the Blue Devils have a plethora of running backs that will see time on Saturday. Jela Duncan and Josh Snead will see most of the action in the backfield. Each averages over five yards a carry and if they can run that way against Miami, it could get out of hand early for the Hurricanes. While Duke doesn't do anything especially great on offense, they are good enough both through the air and on the ground to make it challenging for defenses to defend their style.
Key Matchup: Stephen Morris vs the Duke secondary. Morris will need to protect the ball and make good decisions throughout the game, but that could prove tough against an opportunistic defense like the Blue Devils that has already accounted for 12 interceptions this season. If Morris can throw the ball downfield without turning it over, the Hurricanes can go into Durham and beat the Blue Devils. If he turns it over the way he has his entire career, it will be tough for the Hurricanes to win.
Prediction: +Duke Athletics 24 - +Miami Hurricanes 14
Last Week: 2-3
2013 Season: 33-22
No comments:
Post a Comment