The moment we have all been waiting for is finally here. College Football gets underway tonight and there are some interesting games on the ledger in this first week of action. Each week I will choose five games to preview and predict including a weekly upset special. Below are my picks for week 1.
Utah St vs Utah- The Battle of the Brothers rivalry squares off again tonight in Salt Lake City, Utah where the Utes will look the avenge last season's overtime loss to their in state rival. It was the first time the Utes had lost to the Aggies since 1997.
The Aggies, under first year head coach Matt Wells, are looking to build off of last year's WAC Championship and 11-2 record by knocking off their in state rival for the second consecutive season. The Aggies return 14 starters from last year's team including first team WAC Jr Quarterback Chuckie Keeton. RB Rashad Hall also returns along with an experienced offensive line, which should help balance the Aggies' offensive attack. Defensively, the Aggies will mix an experienced secondary with a rather young but talented front seven. The Aggies were the 14th rated total defense last year, piling up 42 sacks and 14 interceptions, while only allowing 322 yards per game. Despite the loss of Head Coach Gary Andersen, it's easy to see why many expect the Aggies to challenge Boise State for the Mountain West Championship this year with their up tempo offense and opportunistic defense.
The Utes are looking to rebound after last year's disappointing 5-7 campaign in which injuries led to the team's first losing season in 10 years. The Utes return 12 starters from last year's squad including Sophomore QB Travis Wilson, RB Kelvin York and top two returning WR's in Dres Anderson and Kenneth Scott. Wilson was forced into the starting role last year after a career ending injury to former starter Jordan Wynn and inconsistent play from Jon Hays. While the Utes return key skill position players, the offensive line will need to improve from last year in order to compete in the Pac 12. The offense averaged only 324 yards per game last year(108 out of 124) and 26.7 points per game due to an undersized offensive line. The big question is how will the defense fare this year especially after the loss of Star Lotulelei? The Utes defense only accounted for 22 turnovers and 29 sacks a season ago. While DE Trevor Reilly and former safety turned LB Brian Belchen return, the secondary lost three starters from last years team and will need to improve from last year's 8 INT's if they are going to compete against the likes of Oregon and Stanford's offenses.
Prediction: I expect another barn burner like last year in which the game might come down to the final snap. I believe Chuckie Keeton will test the Utes corners all night long which will open up running lanes for Rashad Hall throughout the night. Utah St 28 - Utah 24
Georgia vs Clemson
This should be a high scoring affair. Clemson returns one of the nations top quarterback's in Tajh Boyd along with WR Sammy Watkins and RB Roderick McDowell. The Tigers also sport an offensive line that lost only 1 starter from last years 11-2 team. The Tigers problem recently has been their defense going back to the 2012 Orange Bowl where West Virginia dropped 70 on the Tigers. The Tigers gave up 396 yards a game last year and while somewhat opportunistic in the turnover department, were a bend but don't break defense. While they are the favorite to win the ACC, they will need to improve on their scoring defense if they are going to have a shot at playing for the national title.
Georgia is in the same predicament as Clemson is this year. The Bulldogs return 9 offensive starters including SR QB Aaron Murray, RB's Keith Marshall and Todd Gurley and the entire offensive line. Georgia's offense should be able to score points at will against any opponent especially in tough games against the likes of Florida, LSU, South Carolina and a possible SEC championship game against Alabama. With the losses of playmakers Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree, along with most of the secondary, the Bulldogs defense will need to develop some play makers throughout the season if they expect to win the SEC East.
Prediction: While both teams will score at will, I believe the lack of experience in Georgia's secondary will hurt them in this game against a quarterback of Tajh Boyd's caliber. I believe the Tigers will pull away in the 4th quarter with Boyd's dual threat ability being the key factor. Clemson 35 - Georgia 24
Mississippi St vs Oklahoma St
The Bulldogs will look to slow down the Cowboys up tempo offense in an interesting stylistic matchup. The Bulldogs return 7 starters on offense and will look to establish some offensive consistency under 5th year Head Coach Dan Mullen. With an experienced offensive line as well as returning QB Tyler Russell and RB Ladarius Perkins, the Bulldogs have all the makings of a potentially good team if they can get consistency on the offensive side of the ball. Despite the spread offensive attack, the Bulldogs only averaged 381 yards a game and had trouble scoring against good competition. Russell will need to build on his completion percentage to add to an impressive 2012 campaign that saw him throw for 24 touchdown while only accounting for 10 interceptions. The defense was better than the stats indicate. The Bulldogs ranked 52nd in total defense last year and accounted for 19 interceptions. The pass rush will need to improve however after accounting for only 18 sacks last year. The defense, in fairness, was left on the field way to long in games against top of the line competition like Alabama and Texas A&M which negatively affected some of their numbers.
The Cowboys are many experts' pick to win the Big 12 this year. With 15 returning starters including WR's Josh Stewart and Charlie Moore as well as RB Jeremy Smith and two experienced QB's in Clint Chelf and J.W. Walsh, it's hard not to like this Oklahoma State squad. Chelf filled in nicely last year after starter Wes Lunt and backup J.W. Walsh went down with injuries throwing for 1600 yards and 15 touchdowns. Walsh was no slouch either throwing for 1500 yards and 13 touchdowns and rushing for 300 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Cowboys offense is extremely dynamic with the ability to spread opponents out and pound the ball between the tackles. While the Cowboys defense was improved from the year before, it will need to be better if it is to challenge the likes of Texas, TCU and Oklahoma for the Big 12 title. The Cowboys defense gave up 421 yards a game while only accounting for 24 sacks and 24 turnovers. The defense will need to be more opportunistic in order to keep the Big 12's explosive offenses on the sidelines.
Prediction: I like Oklahoma State big in this game. While I think the Bulldogs will keep it close in the first half, I believe the Cowboys offense will slowly but surely wear the Bulldogs defense down.
Oklahoma State 42 - Mississippi St 17
Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt
After a decent season, Ole Miss looks to break through after a 7-6 record with 19 returning starters and an impressive recruiting class coming in this season. SR QB Bo Wallace returns along with offensive playmakers WR Donte Moncrief, WR Vince Sanders, WR Ja-Mes Morgan and RB Jeff Scott. The Rebels should challenge the Georgia Bulldogs as the most dynamic and explosive offense in the SEC. The Rebels problem last year wasn't with their offense, but with their undersized and lack of depth on their defense. That should change this year with the recruiting class the Rebels hauled in, including highly touted freshman Robert Nkemdiche. The Rebels should be able to fill in holes they had last year and play players at their natural position unlike last year.
After a 9-4 season, the Commodores look to get to 10 wins under 3rd year coach James Franklin. QB Austin Carta Samuels returns for the Commodores where he will be joined by the dual back system of Brian Kimbrow and Wesley Tate. Both combined for 800 yards and 11 touchdowns last season and their workload will increase with the graduation of Zac Stacy. The offense will need to be more consistent and finish drives in order for them to be a serious player in the SEC. The defense returns 6 starters and should be just as good as last years defense. Vandy's defense is what kept them in ball games last year and I expect them to do the same this year.
Prediction: I think this will be the best game of the weekend. I look for high scoring and at a rapid pace. I believe the increase in talent on the defensive side of the ball for Ole Miss will be the difference in this game.
Ole Miss 38 - Vanderbilt 31
Upset Special
TCU vs LSU- Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs look to shock the world again by knocking off another highly touted team in LSU. The Horned Frogs had an up and down season after Casey Pachall was suspended. The offense was inconsistent with Trevone Boykin filling in for Pachall. Pachall looks to have regained the starting QB job and he will have plenty of weapons at his disposal with WR's Brandon Carter and Ladarius Brown returning for the Horned Frogs while the young offensive line looks to build from their experience last year. While the offense looks to be in good shape, everyone knows Patterson's teams are known for their defense and this year TCU's defense should be one of Patterson's best. The Horned Frogs defense returns 9 starters including Freshman All American Devonte Fields as well as All American CB Jason Verrett. There are very few holes on this defense and it will be a challenge to say the least for an opposing offense to score on them.
The Tigers are flying under the radar coming into this year with everyone talking about an Alabama 3 peat. The Tigers bring back talented but inconsistent QB Zach Mettenberger who will look to spark an LSU offense that has at times been flat. He will be helped by SEC first team RB Jeremy Hill along with WR's Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. The offensive line only returns two starters from last years team that average 374 yards a game including 149 rushing yards per game. The line will need to gel quickly so Hill can find the running lanes and power his way past defenders like he did last year. Like TCU, LSU is known for defense and once again they bring back a plethora of talented players including LB Tahj Jones and CB's Jalen Mills and Craig Loston. LSU's defensive strength the past few years has been at the defensive line and despite graduating 3 starters, the Tiger's should again have a solid defensive line.
Prediction: This will be a low scoring defensive struggle that may come down to a 4th quarter turnover. Despite the fact that Devonte Fields isn't playing, I like TCU's chances because they have arguably the best secondary in the country. They will force LSU into some long third down's which is where you don't want to be against this Horned Frog defense.
TCU 17 - LSU 14
