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Friday, September 27, 2013

College Football Week 5 Picks

A decent 3-2 performance last week and now its time to make this weeks picks.

LSU vs Georgia

Zach Mettenberger and the Tigers travel to Athens to take on the Bulldogs in a top 10 SEC matchup on Saturday. Mettenberger returns to Georgia for the first time since being kicked off the Bulldogs 2009 squad and looks to catapult his new team up the BCS ladder, while ending his former team's national championship hopes. Mettenberger has been much improved this year through the air, throwing for ten touchdowns and only one interception so far through four games. RB Jeremy Hill has also picked up where he left off last season accounting for 350 rushing yards and six touchdowns in only three games. Both Mettenberger and Hill as well as WR Odell Beckham Jr will look to attack a Georgia defense that has been porous so far this season giving up an average of 30 points per game, albeit two of those games were against top 10 competition.

After a struggling a bit against North Texas at home, the Bulldogs look to win their second straight game at home against a top 10 team this season. After a sub par start to the season, QB Aaron Murray has been lighting up opponents of late, throwing for 716 yards and seven touchdowns and only one interception over the last two games.  RB Todd Gurley has been a beast this season averaging almost six yards a carry and leading a rushing attack that gains almost 215 yards a game. The Bulldogs will need both Murray and Gurley to play well against the tough Tiger defense if they expect to win on Saturday.

Prediction: LSU will come out hot, driving the ball on the Georgia defense throughout the first quarter and giving themselves a 10-0 lead near the end of the first quarter. The Bulldogs will return the favor by riding Todd Gurley on a 10 play drive resulting in a touchdown with about 10 minutes left in the first half. The Bulldogs defense will come up with a turnover, leading to another Gurley touchdown near the end of the half.  The Bulldogs will score first in the second half with a field goal going up 17-10. The Tigers will have a tough time moving the ball as the Bulldogs put 8 in the box to stop Hill and will force Mettenberger the beat them through the air. After both teams exchange punts, the Tigers finally get on the board with a field goal near the end of the third quarter and pull within four points. Murray, who has ability has been questioned in the big game, will march his team down the field and cap it off with a touchdown pass to Justin Scott-Wesley putting the Bulldogs up 24-13 with a little over seven minutes to go. The Tigers needing two scores have to rely on Mettenberger to get them back in the game and quick. The Bulldog defense opens up a little bit with the lead allowing Mettenberger to hit some quick passes and surprising the Bulldogs with a couple of draws to Hill. The Tigers get a touchdown with three minutes left and go for two to get within a field goal but fail. The Tigers go for an onside kick but it is recovered by the Bulldogs who proceed to run out the clock and get another huge top 10 victory.

+Georgia Bulldogs 24 - +LSU Football 19



Wisconsin vs Ohio St

The Badgers travel to the Horseshoe to take on the Ohio St Buckeyes in a game that many are predicting an upset. The Badgers whacked Purdue 41-10 last week and look to take their ground and pound offense that amassed 388 rushing yards last week with them into Columbus. The two headed monster of Melvin Gordon and James White have a total of 1066 yards and 10 touchdowns through four games this year. The Badgers will heavily rely on both RB's this weekend while Joel Stave looks to keep the Buckeye defense honest to prevent them from stacking the box. The Badgers defense will also look to stop Braxton Miller who will be coming returning after being out the last two games with injury. The Badgers have posted an impressive defense so far this year holding opponents to 10 points per game. The Badgers will need to get pressure on Miller early so he can't get comfortable in his first game back.

The Buckeyes will look to beat the Badgers for the third year in a row on Saturday. Like the Badgers, the Buckeyes rush offense has been dominant so far this year averaging 311 yards per game on the ground. The Buckeyes are also averaging 52.5 points per game and will try to continue their offensive success against a tough, gritty Badger defense. QB Braxton Miller returns for the game, but expect QB Trevor Guiton to get some snaps as well during the game. Guiton filled in very nicely for Miller throwing for 664 yards, 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions the last three games.  RB Jordan Hall will also look to continue his hot start 6.2 yards per carry and eight touchdowns through four games. The Buckeye defense has also had its moments this year but will need to play up to their ability against the rushing attack of Wisconsin.

Prediction: This will be a physical smash mouth football game to start. Both teams will have some nerves to begin the game and after a few punts, Wisconsin will jump on the board first with a rushing touchdown from Melvin Gordon. Ohio St will try to answer but with no avail leading to its third punt on three possessions. Joel Stave leads a long and methodical drive capped off by a nice play action roll out to put the Badgers up 14-0 near the end of the first quarter. After three series of ineptitude from Miller, the Buckeyes put Guiton in there to see what he can do. Guiton moves the ball on his first possession, but it ends with another punt. The Buckeyes come up big and force a three and out on the next possession. Guiton finally leads his team to paydirt with a touchdown scamper. Ohio St adds a field goal to end the half but still trails 14-10 at the half. The Buckeyes come out with authority to begin the second half, gaining huge chunks of yards on their first possession of the half. RB Jordan Hall gets his ninth touchdown of the year to put the Buckeyes up 17-14. On the ensuing possession, James White busts a 75 yard touchdown run to put the Badgers back up 21-17. Guiton continues to play smart and not force any balls into tight windows knowing that a mistake would be critical. Another field goal from the Buckeyes puts the score at 21-20 with seven minutes remaining in the third. Neither team scores for the rest of the quarter. The Badgers put up a field goal at the beginning of the fourth quarter to go back up 24-20. The Buckeyes answer with a quick touchdown drive following a late hit penalty to put themselves up 27-24. After being forced to punt, the Wisconsin defense will try to make a play by blitzing Guiton and leaving man coverage on the outside. This will prove costly as Gution hits Devin Smith for a 40 yard touchdown to put the Buckeyes up 34-24 with four minutes left in the game. The Badgers are now forced to abandon the run game to try and make up the 10 point deficit but it is too late. An interception by Stave at midfield put this one on ice.

+Ohio State Buckeyes 34 - +Wisconsin Badgers 24



Arizona vs Washington

The Wildcats are flying high under second year Head Coach Rich Rodriguez and will look to get their first win against a ranked opponent on the road Saturday when they take on the Washington Huskies in Seattle. Arizona is coming off a 38-10 drubbing of UTSA and will roll into Seattle with the fourth best rushing offense in the nation that also averages almost 44 points per game. RB's Ka'Deem Carey and Daniel Jenkins have combined for 538 yards and five touchdowns while QB B.J. Denker has rushed for 224 yards and five touchdowns as well. The Wildcats will look to pound the ball on offense and have Denker be a game manager when they throw the ball. The Wildcats defense has also been extremely surprising. The Wildcats gave up at least 35 points in eight of their games last year and although it has been against sub standard competition, the Wildcats are only giving up less than nine points per game. The defense will need to continue the early season stinginess to have a shot in Seattle.

The Huskies were picked by many in the preseason as a possible dark horse in the Pac-12 championship picture and so far they have lived up to the hype. The Huskies are 3-0 and have been impressive on both sides of the ball. QB Keith Price leads a well balanced offense that ranks 8th in rushing and 17th in passing. Price has thrown for almost 880 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception. RB Bishop Sankey has bulldozed his way to almost 450 yards and four touchdowns in the early going and will look to mirror his 2011 performance in which he amassed 120 total yards from scrimmage. The Huskies defense, like the Wildcats, has been much improved so far this year.  The Huskies have already recorded 11 sacks and three interceptions through three games this season. They will need to stack the box and stop the Wildcat rushing attack if they expect to stay in the game.

Prediction: This will be the highest scoring contest of the weekend. Both teams will have trouble stopping each other to start the game and four drives will result in four scores with Washington up 14-10 after the first quarter. The second quarter will have as much fireworks as the first with the Huskies scoring on a 60+ yard pass by Keith Price to go up 21-10 only to have Arizona get a short field after a long kick off return, leading to a rushing touchdown from Denker. After a pair of field goals, the Huskies will lead 24-17 at the half. The scoring will take a halt at the beginning of the third with each team coming out with different adjustments to stop the other. Half way through the quarter, Arizona will tie the game up at 24 on a touchdown by Ka'Deem Carey. On the ensuing Washington possession, Price will make his only mistake of the game and throw and interception in his own territory. Four plays later the Wildcats will take their first lead of the game on another rushing touchdown from Carey. With the score 31-24, the Huskies continue their balanced approach and drive down the field leading to a Bishop Sankey rushing touchdown right as the quarter ends. On the ensuing kickoff, the Huskies surprise everyone with an onside kick and recover. Price throws for another touchdown a few plays later making the score 38-31 Huskies with a little over 10 minutes to play. After forcing the Wildcats to punt, the Huskies start working the clock and pounding the Wildcats with the run. A nice play action pass leads to another Price passing touchdown with 5:30 remaining. The Wildcats are forced to go through the air and although they score a touchdown to get within seven, it takes more than four minutes to get the score. Trailing 45-38, the Wildcats kick the onside kick but fail to recover, bringing an end to one exciting game.

+Washington Huskies Athletics 45 - +Arizona Wildcats 38



Ole Miss vs Alabama

The Ole Miss Rebels are 3-0 for the first time since 1989 and will take their unbeaten record to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Rebels are coming off a bye week after destroying the Texas Longhorns in Austin and will try to continue to surprise by attempting to knock off the national title favorite. Dual threat QB Bo Wallace leads the Rebel's up tempo attack with almost 800 all purpose yards and seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. RB Jeff Scott will try to continue his fast start to the season but will be tested by the Crimson Tide. The Rebels also have two playmaking wide receivers in Laquon Treadwell and Donte Moncrief who will test the Alabama corners early and often. The Rebels defense is also much improved over last season. The defensive unit is bigger and has more depth and talent than it did a year ago but will be facing their biggest task yet going up against the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. The Rebels will try to spread the Tide out and outscore them in a shootout.

The Crimson Tide are coming off another good, but not overly impressive win against Colorado St. Alabama is still looking for everything to come together as the offense struggled while the defense was great against Colorado St  while the exact opposite was true against Texas A&M two weeks ago.  QB AJ McCarron looks to bolster his heisman candidacy with another big game performance against a team like Ole Miss. RB T.J. Yeldon will look to play a huge role after a sub par performance against Colorado St due to suspension. The Crimson Tide's championship teams have been known for their defense so it will be interesting to see if the defense can match up against the Rebels offensive attack or will it get shredded again like it did against Texas A&M

Prediction: Ole Miss will come out and immediately try to catch Alabama out of position with their up tempo offense but to no avail. Alabama drives down the field and gets a touchdown from Yeldon to put them up 7-0. After getting a couple of first downs, the Rebels are forced to punt again. On the ensuing drive, Yeldon breaks loose for a 50 yard touchdown to put the tide up 14-0 with less than three minutes to go in the first quarter. After a long return by Scott on the kickoff, the Rebels have to settle for a field goal and at the end of the first quarter the score is 14-3. Another long drive leads to a field goal for the Crimson Tide putting them up 14 points mid way through the third. Wallace tries to press and move his team down the field but is intercepted and returned to the Ole Miss 20 yard. On the next play from scrimmage, McCarron throws a touchdown to Christion Jones to put the tide up 24-3. Both teams exchange punts and Ole Miss gets another field goal to end the half at 24-6. Alabama comes out rolling to start the second half with another touchdown from McCarron, this time to Deandrew White to put the tide up 31-6. Ole Miss doesn't abandon the run just yet, which pays dividends as Scott breaks one to the house from 65 yards. After stopping the Crimson Tide the Rebels get another field goal with three minutes to go in the third quarter with the score now 31-16. The Tide tries to put the game away before the third quarter is over with another T.J. Yeldon touchdown run from 45 yards out to put the Tide up 38-16. The Rebels score on their next offensive possession and go for two and convert. After an interception by McCarron, the Rebels get another touchdown from Scott to pull within seven with seven minutes to go. The Crimson Tide go back to the ground game and eat up clock after converting two first downs, forcing the Rebels to start using their timeouts. The Tide all but seal the game with another field goal with two minutes left in the game. Wallace tries to get a quick score by forcing a throw down field but is picked off and securing the win for Alabama

+Alabama Crimson Tide 41 - +Ole Miss Rebels 31

Upset Special


Oklahoma vs Notre Dame

Oklahoma looks to avenge last year's beat down loss to Notre Dame in South Bend this weekend. The Sooners are coming off a 51-20 drubbing of Tulsa in which Blake Bell got his first start of the season. Bell threw for 451 yards and four touchdowns and showed he could do more than just the "Belldozer" package. The Sooners also have an impressive two headed attack at the running back position in Damien Williams and Brennan Clay who have averaged 271 yards per game so far. The defense has been the most impressive aspect of Oklahoma's team this year allowing only 9 points per game. The Sooner's defense can and will keep them in many of their games if it continues to dominate the way it has so far.

Notre Dame squeaked by again for the second week in a row, beating a tough Michigan St team 17-13 in South Bend last Saturday. QB Tommy Rees continues to get the job done and puts his team in position to win each game. Rees, while not perfect, threw for 142 yards and a touchdown against a very tough Michigan St defense. RB Cam McDaniel will look to get back on track after rushing for 40 yards against the Spartans. He will have another tough task in front of him with Oklahoma's front seven. Notre Dame brings their own tough, physical defense into this game. While not flashy, the Irish defense has been getting the stops it needs in critical parts of the game and will need to continue that trend against a balanced Oklahoma offense.

Prediction: This will be a low scoring affair that will be won in the trenches. Oklahoma will score first on a Bell touchdown run to go up 7-0. The Irish will return the favor with a field goal but those will be the only scores of the first quarter. Mid way through the second the Irish will get another field goal to pull within one but Oklahoma will respond with a field goal of their own right before half to go up 10-6 at halftime. Both teams will trade punts until mid way through the third the Irish finally get a touchdown to go up 13-10. The score will stay 13-10 after three quarters with the Sooners tacking on a field on the first play of the fourth quarter. Both teams will exchange punts again and the Irish will get the ball back at their own 28 with a little over five minutes left in the game. The Irish catch the Sooners off guard with a screen that gains 20 yards and gets the Irish in prime position for a field goal. After another first down the Irish are content to run the ball and force Oklahoma to use their timeouts with only 1:30 left in the game. The Irish make the field goal and go up 16-13 with 1:15 left in the game. Blake Bell gets the ball at his own 25 yard line and starts with a first down the first play. The Sooners get to the line and quickly snap again and get another 9 yards and get out of bounds with 45 seconds left. After an incomplete pass, Bell hits Jalen Saunders for a 15 yard gain and spikes the ball with 31 seconds left at the Notre Dame 40. After another incomplete pass, Bell throws an out route for a gain of 8 but not enough for the first down. Oklahoma attempts the 47 yard field goal but misses wide right and Notre Dame escapes for the third week in a row.

+Notre Dame Athletics 16 - +Oklahoma Sooners Blog 13

Last week: 3-2
Season:    11-9

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