UFC on FOX 4

Tonight, the UFC will make its return to FOX in what should be a very entertaining main card. The action will start off with a Welterweight match up featuring Mike Swick vs DaMarques Johnson.  Swick will be making his first octagon appearance since February of 2010 after dealing with a multitude of injuries including a misdiagnosed stomach condition. Before his absence, Swick dropped his previous two fights including a Welterweight title eliminator against Dan Hardy. Swick likes to fight on the feet and is more of a technical striker than he is a powerful striker.

Johnson, an Ultimate Fighter runner up, will also enter this fight on a losing streak after being submitted by John Maguire in April in Sweden. Johnson has struggled to gain momentum during his time with the UFC and very well could receive his walking papers with a loss to Swick.  Like Swick, Johnson also likes to stand with his opponents, albeit sometimes this is to his disadvantage because of his aggressiveness. 

While Swick will almost certainly get another shot if he loses to Johnson, the same can not be said for Johnson. This sets up for an entertaining fight because both fighters like to stand and trade and both fighters are desperate to get back into the win column. 

Prediction: Despite his long layoff, I believe the quickness and technical striking of Swick will prevail in this match up resulting in a unanimous decision for Swick.


Next up is a Lightweight battle, which in my opinion will be the most exciting fight all night between Joe Lauzon and Jamie Varner. Lauzon is coming off a knockout loss to Anthony Pettis and is looking to rebound against a game opponent in Varner.  Lauzon is a submission specialist with six of his eight UFC fights ending via submission.  His stand up has also improved substantially over his past couple of fights compared to a few years ago.

Varner meanwhile is rolling into this fight on a three match winning streak including an impressive TKO win over Edzon Barboza that no one saw coming.  Varner, a former WEC Lightweight champion, has caught fire since being released from ZUFFA in December of 2010 winning 4 of his last 5 matches and he looks to continue the streak tonight. Varner loves to keep the fight on the feet and go for the knockout.  He has a history of being submitted by crafty submission artists like Ben Henderson and Hermes Franca, so he will need to be careful tonight against Lauzon.

Prediction: While Varner has been hot of late, Lauzon has faced much tougher competition and has fared fairly well.  I believe at some point Lauzon will get this fight to ground and submit Varner in the second round and will take home the submission of the night bonus.

In the Co-Main Event, Lyoto Machida will take on Ryan Bader in a bout that could determine the next #1 contender for the Light Heavyweight Championship. Machida has lost three of his last four bouts including his last fight against Jon Jones for the Light Heavyweight Championship.  In the beginning of his UFC career, Machida could hardly be touched by his opponents given his karate style that focuses on circling the cage while delivering quick, technical strikes.  Recently, however, opponents have started to bring the fight to Machida rather than try to counter attack him, which has allowed them to close the distance and deliver powerful strikes to him.  He will need to get back to his old formula of circling the cage and quick striking tonight to avoid being taken down by Bader.

Bader, an All American collegiate wrestler, will come in tonight on a two fight win streak after losing his previous two bouts.  Bader loves to take the fight to the ground, but also likes to stand and trade with opponents, especially in close distances, which helps him to change levels and take his opponents down.  If Bader is going to win tonight, he must be proactive rather than reactive against Machida and take the fight to him, so he can close the distance and attempt to take Machida down.

Prediction: This fight is a toss up in my opinion. While I believe Bader will get some shots in on Machida and possibly take him down a couple of times during the fight, I think Machida's speed and technical striking will be enough to earn him a split decision victory.

Now to the Main Event match up of Mauricio Rua vs Brandon Vera.  Like the Co Main Event, the winner of this fight could become the next #1 contender for the Light Heavyweight Title. Rua comes into this fight after losing to Dan Henderson in one of the greatest fights in UFC history. When healthy, Rua is a force to be reckoned with as we saw in his pride days as well as his UFC fights against Chuck Liddell and Lyoto Machida. When he's not, we see a fighter that some wonder how he made it to the UFC(see Forrest Griffin 1). Rua can and will trade with anybody in the Light Heavyweight Division. He has one punch knockout power as well as some amazing ground and pound to go along with his transitional ground game. He has fought some of the very best in the world and given what is on the line tonight, I expect him to come out with guns blazing.

Vera on the other hand is lucky to be in this position, let alone in the UFC. Vera was reinstated after being released by the UFC following his loss to Thiago Silva after post fight test showed Silva tested positive for a banned substance. Vera has made the most of his second chance by beating Eliot Marshall last October and now could possibly be one fight away from a title shot. Vera is a Muay Thai fighter that loves to clinch and deliver knees as well as some dirty boxing. The problem for Vera tonight is that Rua also loves to get in the clinch and deliver blows, so he will need to avoid Rua's clinch at all cost.

Prediction: While Vera is lengthy and can deliver some problems for Rua, I believe Rua is too skilled, talented and experienced for someone of Vera's caliber. I expect Rua to be very impressive and finish Vera in the second round, earning himself a rematch with Jon Jones.