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Sunday, July 24, 2011

Big 12 Preview Part 1

Given that I bought my season tickets for football today, I figured it would be a good time to preview the upcoming Big 12 football season. I will do this in two parts with this post focusing on the Big 12 South and my next post focusing on the Big 12 North.


Baylor- Long considered the Big 12 doormat, the Baylor Bears shocked many last year by finishing 7-6 and making it to a bowl game for the first time in 16 years. Junior QB Robert Griffin returns to try and prove that last year wasn't a fluke. Griffin, one of the most exciting players in Bears history, will be relied on more this year than in the past with the graduation of leading rusher Jay Finley, as well as the recent suspension of playmaking WR Josh "Flash" Gordon.

Last year, Baylor's defense struggled with the upper echelon teams like Oklahoma, TCU and Texas A&M. The defense will need to be greatly improved this year if they are to compete for the Big 12 title. The schedule isn't very favorable to the Bears with home games against TCU, Oklahoma, Texas, and road games against Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.

With the loss of some of their biggest playmakers, the Bears are going to need their defense to perform at a very high level if they are to continue their success from last year. I have a hard time seeing the defense playing up to this ability and I see the Bears finishing 5-7


Oklahoma- The preseason #1 team in the country returns a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles lead an offense which averaged 37.2 points per game as well as 343 passing yards a game. The loss of RB Demarco Murray hurts, however, RB Roy Finch saw extensive time last year while Murray was hurt and should be able to handle the load left by Murray's departure.

The defense also returns a boatload of talent from a team that only gave up 22 points per game. The Sooners have a favorable schedule with home games against Missouri, Texas Tech and Texas A&M. The two biggest challenges for the Sooners this season are a trip to Tallahassee to take on Florida State and the annual Red River Rivalry against arch rival Texas.

Although the Sooners are very talented, few teams that start off #1 end up making it to the National Championship. I think the Sooners will finish 11-1 and win the Big 12 with their only loss coming to arch rival Texas.


Oklahoma State- This is everybody's dark horse to win the Big 12, but I predict they will have a huge drop off compared to last year. While the dynamic duo of Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon return, the cowboys lose top RB Kendall Hunter as well as their Offensive Coordinator Dana Holgorsen. Prior to Holgorsen arriving at Oklahoma State, the Cowboys had struggled to mount consistent offensive performances under Head Coach Mike Gundy. Gundy will now call the plays once again to fill the void of the departing Holgorsen.

The Cowboys defense has also been suspect over the past few years. They have a bend but don't break style of defense rather than having a consistent shut down type of defense. Considering the offensive fire power this league has, the defense will need to play above expectations if they are going to be able to keep the Cowboys in games.

The Cowboys also have an extremely difficult schedule with road games against Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri and Texas Tech as well as hosting Arizona and Oklahoma. With all this taken into consideration, I expect the Cowboys to have a fairly significant drop off this season and finish 8-4


Texas- The Longhorns had quite possibly one of the worst season's ever in the program's history. This left many fans displeased and they called for many of the coaches heads. The Longhorns shook up their coaching staff by getting rid of long time Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis as well as the Offensive Line, Wide Receivers and Strength Coaches. The team also experienced changes on the other side of the ball with Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp leaving to take the Head Coaching position at Florida.

Even with all coaching changes, there are high expectations in Austin. QB Garrett Gilbert returns to try and turn around an offense that was turnover prone and at times predictable. Leading rusher Cody Johnson returns and brings a physicality that the Longhorns lacked throughout last season. The Longhorns face questions at Wide Receiver with Malcolm Williams and Mike Davis being the only two players returning that contributed at the position last year. Talented Sophomore Darius White and true Freshman Jaxon Shipley are also expected to crack the rotation. The offensive line is also a huge question mark considering the Longhorns are transitioning from a finesse running style to a power running game.

The defense returns many playmakers like LB Kennan Robinson, Emmanuel Acho and DT Jackson Jeffcoat. These players are expected to lead the defense and return them to the way they played in 2009. The Longhorns schedule is very favorable with home games against BYU, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech while they have one true difficult road game against Texas A&M. The only other test will be against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl.

If Texas can put their new system in place and get the most out of their players, with this current schedule, they could be serious contenders in the Big 12. I expect the Longhorns to finish 10-2 with their only losses against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M.


Texas A&M- With the return of QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Cyrus Gray and WR Ryan Swope, the Texas A&M offense is poised to continue their explosive output from a year ago. The Aggies had a breakout season last year in which they averaged 31.2 points per game and beat Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas Tech and their arch rival Texas.

The defense was also improved compared to past years and only gave up 22 points per game. The Aggies defense will need new playmakers to step up this year with the loss of All American LB Von Miller. If the defense can play like they did last year, the Aggies will be very tough to beat.

The 2011 schedule is very favorable to the Aggies in that they host home games against Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas while their only two true road test include Texas Tech and Oklahoma. I see the Aggies going 10-2 with their only losses to Arkansas and Oklahoma.


Texas Tech- The Red Raiders lose a lot from last years team including QB Taylor Potts, and RB Barron Batch. While Potts was inconsistent at times and drew the ire of many fans, one can't deny that he gave the Red Raiders the best chance to win each game. Scotty Young is the prohibitive favorite to win the QB job. The Red Raiders offense will still have playmaking ability with the return of WR's Lyle Leong and Alex Torres.

As has been the case for many years, the defense needs to improve if the Red Raiders are going to be contenders. Outside of a few games last year, most notably Texas, the defense lacked playmaking ability and was torched by high quality offenses.

The schedule shapes up fairly well for the Red Raiders with home games against Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Nevada to go along with road games against Oklahoma and Texas. Despite the semi favorable schedule, I see the Red Raiders as being a middle of the road team with all their Big 12 wins coming over lower quality teams. I predict the Red Raiders will finish 7-5.

5 comments:

  1. Mr. Allensworth,

    OU is going to smash Texas this year. Then, after they win the national championship, they will lose to TCU in 2012. Thank you, and God bless America.

    Signed,
    Mr. Banks

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mr. Banks

    Would you like to explain why OU will smash Texas and how OU will lose to TCU next year. I am very curious to know why. Pizza Hut is to appetite, what Jack Nicklaus is to golf.

    Signed,
    Mr Allensworth

    ReplyDelete
  3. That's a great f***ing introduction Peter...

    Because OU brings back loads of talent from a BCS team and Texas... well, they bring back players from a team that went 5-7 and lost to Baylor, Iowa State, and UCLA at home. Mack Brown's team is full of entitled players that don't feel like working hard and don't think they have to earn anything, it should just be handed to them. Considering the recruiting classes Texas brings in they should be in a BCS game every year, no questions asked. Since they aren't, it's pretty obvious it's a coaching issue. Then there's a program like TCU, who takes 2 star recruits and turns them into Rose Bowl champions and top draft picks. Patterson has his kids running up the stairs of Amon G Carter stadium as we speak, in the 105 degree weather. Anyone with a bad attitude and a poor work ethic won't stick around, it's as simple as that. OU will lose to TCU because Landry Jones will likely go pro and the TCU defense will smother whoever takes over. And even if he doesn't it won't matter, it's a home game in the newly renovated stadium and the team will be about as jacked up as possible.

    Who will start at QB for UT this year? I really can't see them winning more than six to eight games no matter who they put in there.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I agree with you on some parts. Mack Brown has done less with more his entire time at UT. I have said that for the past 7 years. Everybody forgot about all the mediocre seasons and bad coaching decisions he made from 99-2004 after he won the championship in 2005 with arguably the greatest college quarterback and athlete to ever play. Let me repeat... it took one of the greatest players in the history of NCAA football for him to win a championship. However, Texas doesn't recruit players like Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama do who have rap sheets longer than my bath robe. This, along with Mack's loyalty to senior's has held the UT program back from where it should be. Last year was an utter disaster I will give you that. The offense was predictable, couldn't run forward, couldn't block and couldn't pass. The defense also underperformed from the expectations they had preseason. Texas returns more starters and overall talent on the defensive side of the ball than OU does. The defense is loaded with playmakers. Jackson Jeffcoat is a future 1st round pick at the D line. He also has a battery mate in Alex Okafor who proved last year that he could step up and play at this level. These two teamed together will prevent offensives from double teaming either of them which will allow them to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. LB Emmanuel Acho returns along with blue chip prospect Jordan Hicks and preseason Bednarik, Nagurski, Lombardi and Butkus Award nominee Keenan Robinson. The offense will have some pains early but the fact is they will have a spark that they haven't had since VY was leading them into the Rose Bowl. The Longhorns also have talent at the RB position with Cody Johnson and Blue Chipper Malcolm Brown, who will crack the rotation at some time during the season. The main question is at quarterback with Garrett Gilbert. He definitely has the potential to be a great player. He didn't win the Gatorade Player of the Year Award for nothing. Plus, last year I blame the offensive line for many of his mistakes. The line was so soft, that if the wind blew hard enough they would fall over. He will more than likely win the starting job but don't expect him to be there long if he struggles early. His leash is much shorter this year than last.


    With regard to Oklahoma, yes they do return a lot of talent on both sides of the ball but do you honestly believe they are the best team in the country? This is the same team that nearly lost to Utah State, Air Force Cincinnati and a underperforming Texas team and it took them until the 4th quarter to put away a very undermanned UCONN team in the Fiesta Bowl. This team has the pressure of knowing every single week, they will get the other teams best because they are the #1 team in the country. Like I said, I think they will be good, but I think they are a little overrated and this is coming from somebody who has seen them up close two years in a row.

    Lastly, as far as your TCU statement, I don't doubt that they can beat OU, I was just curious as to why you thought they would. Patterson has one of the best defenses in the country year in and year out. He is a great motivator and gets the most out of his players who are mostly under recruited guys that have a chip on their shoulder to prove they can play. I wouldn't say they are or will be a super power until they join a real conference like the Big 12, Big Ten or SEC. Personally I think the MWC is better than the BIg East so I was shocked when they decided to join the Big East. They are growing and gaining a lot of respect, however, line them up against OU, Texas, A&M and OSU in consecutive weeks and I would bet they would lose two, if not three of those games

    ReplyDelete
  5. A former longhorn's thoughts:

    I see TX/OU ending one of two ways. Either the Texas secondary will play above their caliber and manage to force OU to beat them on the ground (which they would considering Texas' complete lack of offense), or far more likely, Jones, Broyles and Co. will absolutely shred Texas' green cornerbacks and below average safeties.

    The winner of Bedlam will claim the Big 12-2 title. However, under no circumstances will Bob Stoops collect that ever so elusive 2nd NCAA title. Last year, an above average at best Texas defense hung with the well developed OU offense. What has changed this year? Gone is all-universe RB Murray, replaced by a stable of highly touted but untested recruits. Can the experience improvement of Jones and Broyles offset that loss? I think not given that neither player makes many mistakes as is. On the defensive side, far too many key losses will prevent OU from winning those 1 or 2 games where the offense struggles.

    ReplyDelete

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